In Hindsight: Championship Promotion and Relegation Predictions: How Accurate Were The Experts?

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Just a retrospect, given that the pundits were not too accurate in their assessments of Hull's and Bristol City's promotion prospects or of Leicester's relegation.

What The Bookies Were Saying:

May 28, 2007 - 2007-2008 QPR's Championship Title Odds-
Early odds for 2007-2008 Championship: QPR's Championship Prospects for 2007-2008

SKY BET Coca Cola Championship 07/08 - Win Outright
Charlton 6/1 Coventry 16/1 Hull 40/1
Sheff Utd 8/1 C Palace 20/1 Burnley 40/1
Wolves 8/1 Cardiff 20/1 Colchester 40/1
Derby 10/1 Preston 20/1 Scunthorpe 50/1
Watford 10/1 Ipswich 20/1 Plymouth 50/1
Southampton 12/1 Sheff Weds 20/1 QPR 50/1
Leicester 14/1 Norwich 25/1 Barnsley 50/1
Stoke 16/1 Bristol City 25/1 Blackpool 50/1
http://www.skybet.com/skybet?action=GoEvType&id=10003361

Blue Sq.com
Charlton Athletic 6/1 BET Norwich City 22/1 BET
Sheffield United 15/2 BET Plymouth Argyle 28/1 BET
Wolverhampton Wanderers 8/1 BET Burnley 28/1 BET
Watford Ipswich Town 33/1 BET
Southampton 10/1 BET Blackpool 33/1 BET
Leicester City 14/1 BET Bristol City 33/1 BET
Crystal Palace 18/1 BET Queen's Park Rangers 40/1 BET
Stoke City 18/1 BET Colchester United 40/1 BET
Sheffield Wednesday 20/1 BET Hull City 40/1 BET
Preston North End 20/1 BET Scunthorpe United 66/1 BET
Coventry City 20/1 BET Barnsley 80/1 BET
Cardiff City 22/1 BET
QPR Report

Also: Also Vital Hull Assessment of Promtion and Relegation Odds for Championship Clubs


JUNE 02, 2007 QPR's 2007-08 Championship Odds: Bookies' View of QPR's 2007-08 Championship Prospects
Ladbrokes QPR 100/1
CORAL: - Win Coca Cola Championship - Outright QPR 66/1
SKY BET Win Outright QPR 50/1
William Hill QPR 41/1
Victor Chandler QPR 40/1
Betfred 66/1
Blue Sq.com Queen's Park Rangers 40/1
QPR Report - Championship Title Odds


September 03, 2007 - QPR's Premiership Promotion Prospects
William Hill - What Price Q P R For Prem In 4 Seasons?
QUEENS PARK RANGERS FOR PREMIERSHIP? BET ON IT....
.With the prospective new owners of QPR declaring that they believe the club is capable of reaching the Premiership within the next four seasons, William Hill have opened a book on just which division QPR qill be in when the 2011/12 season opens - and make them 2/1 shots to be in the Premiership, 4/11 not to.
Hills also offer Even money that QPR will be a Championship club for season 2011/12; 11/4 a League One side; 25/1 in League Two; 100/1 lower than League Two.
*QPR are 9/4 to be relegated this season with Hills who have them 33/1 to be promoted and 80/1 to win the Championship.
Further information....graham sharpe...0780 3233702 William Hill
QPR Report

December 07, 2007 - QPR Relegation Odds- Current Coral Relegation Odds
Coral:
Blackpool 2/1
Colchester 2/1
Preston 9/4
Coventry 9/4
QPR 9/4
Cardiff 5/2
Norwich 5/2
Scunthorpe 5/2
Crystal Palace 7/1
May 28, 2007 - QPR's Championship Odds QPR Report

February 11, 2008 - QPR's Odds of Winning Promotion-
Slightly more optimistic than this blogger! With 15 games left, QPR currently have 39 points and are 6 points behind the sixth playoff team. To make the playoffs, traditionally need about 70-72 points (or slightly more). So QPR probably need to win at least 10 of their last 15 games.
Promotion Odds: Current Betting on QPR Promotion Coral giving 8/1... QPR Report


February 24, 2008 - Updated QPR Odds: Relegation, Promotion and Champions-
Updated odds...Relegation: Coral are offering odds of 16/1 and BlueSQ 20/1 QPR Relegation -
Promotion: Bookies offering Odds between 12/1 and 16/1 on QPR wining promotion
Championship Winners: Various bookies giving from odds of 66/1 to 125/1 on QPR winning the Championship.


Saturday, August 18, 2007 - QPR's Championship Prospects This Season - A Detailed Look-
From last week's Ealing Gazette (prior to the Bristol City and Orient games or the latest "developments" in the QPR takeover saga: A very detailed look at QPR's prospects this season:

Ealing Gazette, August 9, 2007 - Who will do what?

A BIG season awaits Dexter Blackstock, who must now step out of the shadows of Paul Furlong and Kevin Gallen and earn the tag of indispensable striker.

There were times last season when he showed he is more than ready to assume that key role and Rangers need the player to be injury-free and firing towards 20 goals if they are to avoid another flirtation with relegation and harbour more ambitious thoughts.

But the man who increasingly makes Rangers tick is Adam Bolder - who is an even better harrier and passer than Marc Bircham.

The untimely injury to another midfielder, Simon Walton, has upset John Gregory's best laid plans. The midfielder had settled in well and was a likely starter. Now Stefan Bailey and Stefan Moore could enjoy an unexpected new lease of life.

Rangers should be more solid at the back this season with Danny Cullip, Damion Stewart, Michael Mancienne, John Curtis, Dominic Shimmin and Pat Kanyuka sharing the central defensive duties and the full-backs look OK

Up front, Ben Sahar probably did enough against Fulham last week to earn a starting role alongside Dexter Black-stock, so Danny Nardiello may have to bide his time for a while.

Ray Jones and Marc Nygaard are useful alter-natives but neither can be classed as consistent.

It goes without saying that Rangers will miss a stack of goals which originated from Lee Cook's sweet left foot and nobody appears as equally adept at finding an extra yard of pace. Gareth Ainsworth can on his day, but we must assume he will have cameo roles, given an all-action style that invites injury.

Martin Rowlands needs to stay fit so he can provide the bullets from setpieces if nothing else.

In actual fact, he is rather more important than that and his form seems inextricably bound to Rangers' fortunes. If he plays well, Rangers are always that much more likely to win. Ealing Gazette


EALING GAZETTE - August 9, 2007 - {Gregory] I won't let us repeat last year's failing- QPR News by Yann Tear

JOHN Gregory has vowed to steer QPR to safer pastures this season and is convinced his team will show signs of vast improvement.

The Rs were too close to the relegation trapdoor for comfort last season and only a late burst of form took them clear of danger.

But Gregory has had time to shape the squad in his image now and says he has a totally different animal under his wing than he did last September when he took over from Gary Wad-dock.

"It can't be any worse than last year. It was an awful time for us and as long as I'm here, we'll never drop to those depths again," the Rangers boss said.

"It feels a little bit more like my team now. It's slowly coming and I've been able to pick up one or two bargains on the way.

"There's a really professional feel about the place in the way the boys go about their training.

"We've come a long way since last September. We've got a long, long way to go and there's a lot better teams than us in this division. But one thing you'll get off this bunch of lads is total commitment."

Outlining his reasons for thinking far better times are ahead this term, Gregory continued: "I think the players I inherited are better now than they were last September when I came in.

"Damion Stewart is a better player now, Zesh Rehman is a better player than he was when we came in. Marcus Bignot too.

"All the people who were here when we came in have improved. They've worked hard on their games and listened carefully to the coaching staff.

"On the medical side, our play-ers are exceptionally fit. We've got a fantastic medical set-up here with Joe Dunbar our performance manager and Mark Barry our fitness coach.

"Right the way through with physios and masseurs, remedial therapists, I feel I've got a really good back-up team. Mick Har-ford and Warren Neil on the coach staff.

"The fitness levels that they've got is probably the biggest single feature of how things have changed over the last nine months.

"Mick Harford's only been here a month and it's the one thing that's really hit him, how hard everybody works on the training ground Monday to Friday.

"If you work well Monday to Friday, you take it into the game on the Saturday. Hopefully we can get off to a reasonable start and do better than last year."

Rangers are among the teams expected to struggle this season, if the bookmakers are to be believed, but victory over Premier League neighbours Fulham last week added to the wave of optimism. Ealing Gazette


EALING GAZETTE -August 9, 2007 - Sahar adds to optimism -Gregory's View By Yann Tear

THERE is no pressure from Chelsea for QPR to play Ben Sahar, John Gregory has said - but if the loaned striker can fulfil the hints of promise shown in last week's friendly win over Fulham, it will be impossible to leave him out.

The teenager turns 18 today (Friday) but appears to have a far older head on his shoulders.

He showed the right mix of robust desire and calmness in bagging his second half goals in the 2-1 win over the Whites and already the hope must be that his three-month stay can be extended to the New Year at least.

"Ben could certainly play a big part for us this season," Gregory said. "He's quick and clever and makes lots of good runs which sometimes don't get picked out by us because we are not as good as he is sometimes.

"Hopefully we can give him a good education here over the next six months.

"We are looking to keep him until the January window when he might be recalled to Chelsea because of the African Nations Cup.

"We will do our very best to look after him and he will certainly improve us."

Gregory added: "If there is such a thing as trying too hard, probably Ben was doing that in the first half.

"It was his home debut and he wanted to just settle down, but the sign of a good goalscorer is when you're one on one against the goalkeeper when you've got time to think about it.

"So many people fluff it. He just set himself up and slotted it like a 32-year-old. Like a Shearer, like a Bergkamp, or an Henry. It was a great finish.

"He earned the first goal himself with his attitude to nick the ball and he thumped it home with tremendous authority for somebody so young."

Rangers have three Chelsea players on loan, with James Simmonds joining Sahar and Michael Mancienne at Loftus Road this month, but that does not mean the Blues will dictate the line-up, Gregory insists, even though he has made no secret of his will-ingness to become a quasi-feeder club for the Premier League neighbours.

"I didn't want to waste Ben Sahar's time by playing him in the reserves or he might as well have stayed at Chelsea," the Rangers boss said.

"But I'm under no pressure from Chelsea to start their players in every match, they are always very good about that, although they would obviously be concerned if either of them [Sahar or Mancienne] ended up not playing in the first team for a long period."We had Jimmy Smith and Michael Mancienne last year and at certain stages, both of them came out of the team and had a little breather because the intensity of the Championship was enormous pressure on the young boys."

Basing your hopes around a raw teenager who may not be around for long is not normally the sign of stable outfit, but Sahar's performance tapped into a well of optimis. The belief at the club is that it can't be as bad as last year and that Gregory is beginning to assemble a sturdier team.

But the foundations remain rocky. The club is looking for new investors and there is every indication that Gianni Paladini and the Monaco group will be happy to jump ship if the price is right.

There is no money to bail Rangers out of trouble, should the going get tough, hence a groundswell of opinion outside W12 that they will struggle to beat the drop.

The loans at the club are not just on the pitch but off it too and as long as debts are dragging the club down - especially alleged rulebending ones with chairmen of other clubs - the optimism can never come without an asterisk.

Recent years have been marked by a strange mix of high farce and thuggery which have done the club no favours - the gun-toting episode at Loftus Road, the brawl at Harlington with the Chinese Olympic team and the pre-season plastic-pitch farce in Italy last year.

They could do without such distracting controversies again.

Gregory is aware of the optimism but knows there is no mileage in milking it too much. An injury here or there, as happened last week to unlucky new signing Simon Walton, who fractured his left leg, shows how fragile this season's journey could be.

"I'm sure that after beating Fulham, all the QPR fans will be expecting me to win the league by 20 points, otherwise I'll get the sack," Gregory joked.

"A realistic target for us is to be above half way, I think.

"Losing Simon Walton is a big blow because we'd earmarked him to play in that central midfield role. He's a really solid, dependable player and person who's taken to this place like you wouldn't believe.

"We are going to have to make one or two adjustments and we might have to go out and bring one more in, although I don't think we've got any money left.

"It was a big fillip for us winning against Fulham. A lot of kudos goes with it. It doesn't count for anything, but it still sends us into good spirits next week."

Gregory added: "We want to get off to a good start. If we do, it's great, if we don't, then we have to put it right.

"We will all be going into that first match full of the joys of spring and all wanting to give it our best shot. But you have to retain that enthusiasm in November when you're playing at Turf Moor on a wet and windy Tuesday night."

And you need to avoid injuries, off-pitch controversies and the loss of your best loan players, he might have added -Ealing Gazette


EALING GAZETTE -Nardiello admits he may have to bide his time a littleAug 9 2007

SUMMER signing Danny Nardiello could only admire from the bench as Ben Sahar stole the headlines in last week's thrilling win for QPR over Fulham, writesYann Tear.

And when he finally came on as sub in the 70th minute, the applause that rang out from the stands was for the two-goal hero from Chelsea rather than for the 24-year-old Wales international.

Nardiello was expected to start the season as Dexter Blackstock's strike partner, but Nardiello concedes now that he may have to be patient.

"It's going to be hard to get in the team but it's always good to have a bit of competition," he told the Gazette.

"If anything I like it because it makes we work harder.

"I always want to start but whether I do or not is up to the manager, obviously. If not, then I'll just have to fight for my place. It's the same any club you are at. As soon as I came here, I knew there was a good set of strikers. The main thing is I'm really enjoying it down here and feel I've settled in well.

"I've played all my football up north even though I'm from Coventry, but I was happy coming down to London and starting a new life down here and hopefully I'll be successful.

"There's a great set of lads and a good manager and I'm enjoying the football. Hopefully we can take the Fulham performance into the season."

Nardiello left under a cloud at Barnsley, where he was poised to sign a new contract before changing his mind.

"I don't think the manager would be too happy with me there, and I'm not too sure what the reception will be like when I go back, but we'll see when that happens." he said. "I'm still mates with all of the lads and a few of the staff at Barnsley.

"All I'm thinking about now is QPR's progress, and we've got to look to push up towards the top of the table.

You don't want to say you just want to stay up this season.

"The gaffer's brought in a lot of new players to improve the squad and there's no reason why we can't push for the top half of the table.

"With any luck it will be better for me than last year when I broke my collarbone near the start of the season and only got nine goals.

"I've played in midfield for Barnsley and my other clubs but I prefer to play up front and hope to be among the goals." Ealing Gazette
QPR Report


And a two-year Flashback to what the Media Experts Were Predicting for QPR Priort to the Start of the 2006-2007 (Waddock/Gregory) Season

Friday, August 03, 2007 Year Ago - Assessing QPR's 2006-07 Championship Prospects-
Most of the newspapers haven't yet given their pre-season assessment of how clubs will do, although the bookies have spoken - and are not rating QPR's prospects too highly. See: Recent bookie's assessment. Early Bookies' (beginning of June) look at QPR prosects for 2007-2008
A reminder of what was said a year ago about QPR's Prospects in 2006-2007:

The Times - Championship Preview
"QUEENS PARK RANGERS - There will be plenty of new faces on the pitch at Loftus Road this season, but unfortunately for Rangers supporters, most of Gary Waddock’s signings, who come from all corners of the globe, are untried both in this country and at this level. Expect to see a new face in the home dugout if they do not gel quickly into a winning side. Last season: 21st. This season: could go down"
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,27-2292825,00.html

BBC - The Championship form guide
QPR - "...BBC Sport verdict: New boss Gary Waddock had a difficult introduction to the job last season. But although results were bad, some performances showed promise. Waddock has the club in his blood and has pledged to play attractive football too. He has strengthened his squad over the summer but needs a good start to avoid a lengthy battle against the drop.
Key man: Nick Ward. Big things are expected from this Aussie youngster.
http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/football/eng_div_1/5175924.stm

Soccernet's Championship preview 2006/7
Richard Jolly
"...QPR Last season: 21st Manager: Gary Waddock - A QPR favourite who offers the prospect of better football at Loftus Road, despite a mediocre end to the season.
In: Damion Stewart (Bradford, free), Adam Czerkas (Kolporter Korona, loan), Egutu Oliseh (La Louviere, free), Armel Tchakounte (Kitchee FC, free), Nick Ward (Perth Glory, free).
Out: Dean Sturridge (Kidderminster, free), Richard Langley (Luton, free).
A largely unprofitable March and April did not stop QPR promoting Gary Waddock to succeed Ian Holloway, whose style of football may be deemed more suitable for the lower divisions.
Despite an eclectic bunch of rather cheap signings, he will operate with basically the same squad. The benefit is that it still includes Danny Shittu, the giant centre back whose uncompromising displays have attracted attention. The downside is that an ageing forward line requires rejuvenation and, as Marc Nygaard (9) was the most successful, a prolific scorer.
Waddock also needs to ease a reliance on Gareth Ainsworth to create while proving an end-of-season slump was not a sign of things to come.
Key man: Danny Shittu - QPR's leader in defence. He could be rather overworked this season.
One to watch: Shabazz Baidoo - Lively young striker who was normally used as a substitute last year.
Must do better: Stefan Moore - Came from Aston Villa in search of first-team football, but did not really make the most of it.
Prediction: If Waddock can ally a greater emphasis on passing with the spirit and resilience that were trademarks of Holloway's team, mid-table. If not, they may be among the strugglers. Soccernet

Guardian August 4, 2006:
Key man Nick Ward The 21-year-old has caught the eye in his first pre-season at QPR. The attacking central midfielder was called into an Australia squad in February.
Prediction Oscurity Mid-table would be decent for a club who finished one place above the drop last season. A regimented, punishing pre-season is expected to reap rewards. Commentator's kit Last month Dunga became the first director to leave Loftus Road to take over as Brazil coach.
In Egutu Oliseh (La Louvière) free, Nick Ward (Perth Glory) free, Adam Czerkas (Odra Wodzislaw) season loan, Armel Tchakounte (Kitchee) free, Damion Stewart (Harbour View) free. Out Richard Langley (Luton) free, Dean Sturridge (Kidderminster) free, Ugo Ukah released, George Santos released. Guardian

Daily Telegraph
Manager: Gary Waddock (July 2006).
In: Damion Stewart (Harbour View, U), Egutu Oliseh (La Louviere), Adam Czerkas (Odra Wodzislaw), Armel Tchakounte (Carshalton), Nick Ward (Perth Glory, U).
Out: Marcus Bean (Blackpool), Richard Langley (Luton), Dean Sturridge (Kidderminster), Ugo Ukah (Nouresa Calcio).
Released: Marcin Kus, George Santos, Sammy Youssef.
Squad numbers: 1 Simon Royce, 2 Marcus Bignot, 3 Mauro Milanese, 4 Ian Evatt, 5 Danny Shittu, 6 Tom Doherty, 7 Matthew Rose, 8 Marc Bircham, 9 Nick Ward, 10 Kevin Gallen, 11 Gareth Ainsworth, 12 Jake Cole, 14 Martin Rowlands, 15 Dominic Shimmin, 16 Steve Lomas, 17 Lee Cook, 18 Stefan Moore, 19 Armel Tchakounte, 20 Scott Donnelly, 21 Paul Jones, 22 Shabazz Baidoo, 23 Stefan Bailey, 24 Patrick Kanyuka, 25 Damion Stewart, 26 Sean Thomas, 27 Egutu Oliseh, 28 Adam Czerkas, 29 Paul Furlong, 30 Mark Nygaard, 34 Matthew Hislop, 35 Jonathan Munday.
Website: www.qpr.premiumtv.co.uk Odds: C: 100-1, P: 40-1, R: 2-1. Telegraph

Predicted Championship - Final League Table
Championship
1. West Brom2. Southampton3. Crystal Palace4. Birmingham City5. Coventry City6. Sunderland7. Derby County8. Leeds United9. Wolves10. Burnley11. Norwich City12. Preston 13. Leicester City14. Cardiff City15. Stoke City16. Hull17. Ipswich Town18. Sheffield Wednesday19. Plymouth Argyle20. Southend United21. Luton Town22. Barnsley23. QPR24. Colchester United - Soccernet

SPORTING LIFE FANZINE
PA Sport
"...If last season's late form is anything to go by, QPR are already relegated. Defeat in six of their final seven games suggests new boss Gary Waddock has his work cut out, just like predecessor Ian Holloway - sent on gardening leave by Rangers in February - and now Plymouth manager.... Sporting Life

Coral - Championship Betting PLymouth
14th last season, Plymouth Argyle are under new management following Tony Pulis’s return to Stoke City.... Coral’s match bet market, Plymouth are 5/6 to finish ahead of Ian Holloway’s old club QPR.
Coral

And Les Ferdinand was saying...
BBC - Ferdinand's Concerns - Ferdinand troubled by QPR unease
By Chris Charles
QPR legend Les Ferdinand is hoping the club can put their problems off the pitch behind them as they get ready for the new season.
The striker, who scored 90 goals in 170 appearances for Rangers, is concerned stories of boardroom upheaval and mounting debts will take their toll.
Ferdinand told BBC Sport: "I'm upset with all the off-the-field antics at QPR that have overshadowed the club.
"I wish they could resolve this stuff and concentrate on the football."
Ferdinand, dubbed 'Sir Les' by the QPR fans during his eight-year spell at Loftus Road, admitted things were not looking great but had every confidence manager Gary Waddock and his assistant Alan McDonald would turn things around.
"My old team-mates Gary and Alan know all about Queens Park Rangers and I hope they can do the business," he said.
"They've got blue and white flowing through their blood so hopefully they can bring them back to where they need to be."
The bookmakers are not convinced, making QPR one of the the favourites to be relegated from the Championship after they failed to win any of their final 11 games last season.
A summer of discontent has seen the club's reputation dragged through the gutter, with a court clearing seven men of forcing then-director Gianni Paladini to resign at gunpoint during the home clash with Sheffield United last season.
Since then, Carlos Dunga has quit as a director after being asked to coach Brazil and Paladini, currently chairman of the west London side, has hinted that Rangers' main investor, Antonio Caliendo, could be ready to pull the plug.
Ferdinand, 39, remains upbeat about the future of the club where he made his name, saying: "I wish they'd stop talking about all the issues off the pitch and get back to talking about the great football Rangers traditionally play.
"If Gary and Alan are allowed to do their jobs, I really hope they can get QPR back into the Premiership as soon as possible." BBC
QPR Report